Global Burden of Disease Study

Abstract:
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2013 Study (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual revisions for the GBD studies that began with estimates for 1990 and were most recently updated to the year 2010. Results for specific diseases and impairments have been extensively published, drawing attention to the importance of disability from musculoskeletal disorders, mental and substance abuse disorders, and a variety of other non-communicable diseases. Given the ambitious goal of the GBD 2010, to synthesize the global evidence on the country-age-sex-year prevalence of all major conditions, a number of specific estimates have been critiqued. Specific data sources, modeling assumptions, and aspects of the general approach have been challenged and there is widespread recognition that more and higher quality data could improve the estimates. The GBD 2013 provides an opportunity to incorporate constructive critical commentary on GBD 2010 data sources, model development, methods, and interpretation. Additionally, the GBD 2013 reflects methodological advances and includes new data on disability weights, capturing many newly published or unpublished data sources for the conditions included in the GBD. In this talk I summarize key findings and methodological changes in our forthcoming paper, which analyzes over 30,800 epidemiological sources from 188 countries spanning the last three decades to provide the most up-to-date empirical assessment of the leading causes of acute disease incidence, chronic disease prevalence, and YLDs since 1990. Globally, we find that in 2013 only 4.3% of the population had no GBD disease or injury sequelae, up slightly from 4.2% in 1990.Biography:
Bryan Sykes is an Assistant Professor of Criminology, Law and Society (and, by courtesy, Sociology and Public Health). His research focuses on demography and criminology, with particular interests in fertility, health, mass imprisonment, and social inequality. He has been a National Science Foundation Minority Post-Doctoral Research Fellow at the University of Washington, a Visiting Scholar in the Institute for Research on Poverty (IRP) at UW-Madison, and a Research Associate at the National Economics Research Associates, the National Board of Medical Examiners, and Nickerson & Associates LLC. Professor Sykes has taught courses on demography, research methods, power and social social stratification, criminology, and public policy, and he has received awards from the Department of Demography at the University of California-Berkeley, the National Board of Medical Examiners, and the Population Association of America. His research has appeared in several volumes of The Lancet, The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, and is forthcoming in issues of Sociological Forum and The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences. Findings from his research have been covered by The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), The New York Times, The Guardian, Time Magazine, NPR, and other news outlets.

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